SURPRISE, Ariz. — When the Royals searched for a new manager last fall, they used the interview process as an opportunity to ask prospective candidates a simple question: What would you do with Bobby Witt Jr.?
Witt, 22, is a pillar of the club’s young core, a former top-five prospect who finished his rookie season with 20 homers, 31 doubles and 30 stolen bases while posting a .722 OPS. The Royals believe Witt will continue to progress at the plate, refining his on-base skills while maintaining his rare combination of power and speed. But club officials were less certain of where he should play. Witt was drafted as a shortstop and played the position throughout the minor leagues, but he opened last season at third base and then graded out poorly at shortstop when he moved to the position.
Witt would have the most value at shortstop, of course, but only if he could improve defensively. Hence, the unofficial survey.
“We knew all year long he was not performing defensively the way we think he’s capable of,” said J.J. Picollo, the Royals general manager.
The chorus of answers was fairly consistent, and it eventually informed the club’s decision to trade shortstop Adalberto Mondesí to the Boston Red Sox, a move that cleared money for other additions and also opened the position for Witt. In short, the Royals are hoping that consistent playing time at shortstop — and the peace of mind of playing just one spot — will lead to better defensive performance.
“I think there was some technique things — footwork, body position,” new manager Matt Quatraro said. “I think really it just came down to reps, and I think getting more reps at the big-league level is going to be the thing that helps him the most.”
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The defensive metrics were fairly uniform in 2022: Witt was below average at shortstop. Of the 31 players who played at least 600 innings at the position last season, Witt graded out 29th in FanGraphs’ defensive runs above average statistic and 31st in defensive runs saved. The metrics available via Statcast painted a similar picture. The Royals say Witt performed better in the minors, according to the metrics available at various levels, though club officials concede that those tracking systems are not as advanced as the Hawk-Eye system available in major-league ballparks.
Witt remains one of the fastest players in the major leagues and possesses a solid throwing arm. When he was drafted No. 2 in the 2019 draft, he projected as a potential five-tool talent, a player whose biggest question mark was his hit tool, not his defense. Which begged the question of why his range appeared limited at times.
The Royals believe that Witt suffered most while adjusting to the speed of the game at the major-league level. When he moved around the infield, it might have slowed down his growth. But club officials also saw improvement in the metrics during the season’s final months, when Witt was more consistently playing shortstop.
“The last five or six weeks of the season, his metrics got better,” Picollo said. “They jumped pretty significantly.”
Witt says he is planning to focus on fundamentals this spring. He will spend time working with new infield coach José Alguacil, a long-time coach with the San Francisco Giants who spent last season as an infield coordinator with Washington. The drills began in the offseason when Witt and Alguacil connected via FaceTime and Witt passed along videos of him taking ground balls.
If Witt proves he cannot handle the role, the Royals have another option waiting in the wings. Maikel Garcia, a 22-year-old shortstop signed out of Venezuela, was recently ranked as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals system by The Athletic’s Keith Law and the 78th-best prospect in all of baseball by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Garcia grades out as a strong defender, though his lack of power in the minor leagues could turn him into a utility infielder in the long term. The Royals believe that Garcia needs more time in the minors and will require his own adjustment period at the major-league level.
For now, though, the Royals have a window of time to look at Witt at shortstop. They’re hoping he won’t need to move again.
“I think his defense will get better,” Quatraro said. “I think being at one position is going to be a big bonus for him.”
Quatraro was announced as the Royals manager last fall. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)Do the PECOTA rankings have the Royals pegged?
The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus, released this week, predict the Royals will win around 63 games. That would be two fewer victories than last year, and while club officials appear realistic about where they are in their competitive window, it would represent a disappointment of sorts. The main reason? The Royals believe they have a better team than that.
Quatraro has already pushed back against the term “rebuild,” though few managers like to hear the word. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino says the team’s players can no longer use inexperience as an excuse.
Royals officials still believe they underachieved last season based on their own internal projections. No one believed they should have been a playoff team. But the club saw a club capable of pushing much closer to .500. Likewise, the Royals think they have a team capable of far exceeding the PECOTA number, though it remains to be seen by how much.
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It’s been an offseason of change in Kansas City. Picollo replaced Dayton Moore as the top baseball executive. Quatraro was hired from Tampa Bay. Pitching coach Brian Sweeney came over from Cleveland. The front office, at the direction of owner John Sherman, is trying to be more data-driven. Will the shift also show up in the standings?
How much can the Royals’ young pitching improve?
Some of the optimism stems from a young group of pitchers who club officials believe have not performed to their true talent level. Brady Singer had a breakout performance in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning in 153 1/3 innings. But the Royals are still waiting for similar progress from the likes of Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar and others. The Royals are hopeful that their new coaching staff can unlock some of that upside. Sweeney has already started working with the young arms, while new bench coach Paul Hoover has identified one area that could help the pitching staff: catching. Specifically, Hoover — who followed Quatraro from Tampa Bay — discovered something in the way the Royals catchers were setting up early in counts.
“Last year I think we were trying to be too fine early,” Picollo said.
The team’s research and development supported the findings. So the Royals will put a stronger emphasis on giving pitchers a more manageable target early in the count. The Royals finished 2022 with the second-most walks in the major leagues, so any marginal improvement would be welcome.
Club officials also believe the return of Zack Greinke and the signings of Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough could take some stress off the young pitchers. For now, the rotation is a little fluid, though Greinke, Lyles and Singer appear to be locks. Lynch would also appear in good shape to make the rotation, while the fifth spot could come down to a list that includes Bubic, Kowar, Yarbrough, Jonathan Heasley, Brad Keller, Angel Zerpa and others.
“They clearly have to get better,” Picollo said of the young arms. “But they’re too talented to pitch the way they did last year. We’re moving in the right direction there. Just with experience alone they’re gonna get better.”
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Can the Royals’ young position players take the next step?
Quatraro made at least two things clear during the interview process. He wants to utilize his entire roster, using the best available data to find the right matchups in the lineup. He also prizes depth on the pitching staff. The former could require some creativity as Quatraro takes over a roster with a number of promising position players but plenty of question marks at key positions.
The Royals are banking on continued improvements from Witt, Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey and others. Nate Eaton, who debuted last year, will get reps at third base this spring while moving around the diamond. Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters will compete in center field after the departure of Michael A. Taylor. Former first-round pick Nick Pratto will try to claim a roster spot after some mixed results at the plate last season.
Among the biggest questions is how Melendez will fit in. Drafted as a catcher, Melendez hit 18 homers in 129 games last season, flashing big pop while posting an OPS right around league average. He started 65 games at catcher while Salvador Perez missed time with injury, but his defense remains a little raw. He also started 37 games in the outfield, including 20 in left field and 17 in right.
Perez will likely see time at designated hitter, which could give Melendez starts behind the plate. But if the club sees value in Witt getting consistent time at shortstop, how much do the Royals want Melendez moving around?
Massey, meanwhile, will compete with Nicky Lopez at second base, while third base also remains fluid. For the time being, the Royals plan to have Hunter Dozier take plenty of reps at third base this spring. Dozier, 31, is under contract for two more seasons at $7.5 million this year and $9.25 million in 2024. (The Royals possess a team option for 2025.) He has batted .226 with a .680 OPS across the last two seasons.
Along with Perez and Lopez, Dozier remains the most experienced position player on the roster. But in the end, the team appears poised to lean on its young core.
“The excuses are kind of over,” Pasquantino said. “Last year was the ‘get-your-feet wet year and try to figure it out.’ This year is ‘we really need to push.’ And I’m not going to put any goals on the season, but … we can’t play that card anymore.”
(Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
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